{ "schema_version": "1.2.0", "site_revision": 21, "generated_at": "2026-08-06", "title": "COVID-19 Claims Evidence Review", "license_note": "Source titles and links are provided for research verification. Consult original publications for reuse terms.", "methodology": { "protocol": "/review-protocol.md", "status": "Structured claim-by-claim evidence review; not a registered systematic review or meta-analysis", "evidence_cutoff": "2026-08-06", "certainty_framework": "GRADE-informed; not a formal GRADE determination", "source_balance_policy": "Institutional guidance is contextual and does not substitute for outcome data when trials or primary studies are available; material claims are checked against the strongest contrary evidence located." }, "source_catalog_metadata": { "catalog_snapshot_at": "2026-08-06", "record_count": 118, "per_source_access_dates": "Not retained before R5; future source checks will be dated individually", "persistent_identifier_policy": "DOI and PubMed identifiers are retained in canonical URLs where available", "archive_status": "Point-in-time Wayback availability checked 2026-08-06; source-level results are published in the verification export", "integrity_screening_status": "Point-in-time access, archive, and correction/retraction metadata sweep completed 2026-08-06; one expression of concern retained; no-notice-found is not a permanent guarantee", "verification_export": "/source-verification.json", "media_provenance_export": "/media-provenance.json", "editorial_review_receipt": "/editorial-review-receipt.json", "fauci_diary_manifest": "/fauci-diaries/manifest.json", "related_primary_records_manifest": "/primary-records/manifest.json", "senate_records_index": "/senate-records/index.json", "senate_slack_page_index": "/senate-records/slack-page-index.json", "senate_gates_page_index": "/senate-records/gates-page-index.json", "latest_intake_receipt": "/r21-intake-receipt.json" }, "claim_records": [ { "claim_id": "C19-POL-001", "revision": 3, "last_reviewed": "2026-07-31", "topic": "Distancing and the six-foot rule", "category": "Policy", "verdict": "Mostly true", "confidence": "High", "evidence_certainty": "Moderate", "claim": "Reducing close contact lowered transmission risk, but six feet was a practical guideline rather than an exact safety boundary.", "sources": [22], "ledger": { "design": "Official synthesis of outbreak investigations, aerosol behavior, and transmission studies", "population": "Indoor community settings and documented transmission events", "outcome": "Transmission risk by proximity, duration, ventilation, and activity", "direction": "Supports distance as a risk gradient—not a precise biological cutoff", "limitations": "Infectious dose is uncertain and no single distance represents every environment", "funding_conflicts": "Public-agency synthesis; underlying studies have varied sponsorship and methods" } }, { "claim_id": "C19-POL-002", "revision": 3, "last_reviewed": "2026-07-31", "topic": "Cloth masks and respirators", "category": "Policy", "verdict": "Mostly true", "confidence": "Moderate to high", "evidence_certainty": "Moderate", "claim": "Cloth masks generally provided weaker and more variable protection than well-fitted respirators.", "sources": [8, 49], "ledger": { "design": "Systematic-review clarification plus controlled filtration, fit, and device-performance evidence", "population": "Community mask users and controlled respirator or mask testing", "outcome": "Filtration, face-seal leakage, source control, and respiratory-infection outcomes", "direction": "Supports fitted respirators over most loose cloth masks; real-world effect depends on use", "limitations": "Adherence, fit, product quality, background transmission, and endpoints vary widely", "funding_conflicts": "Cochrane and NIOSH sources; product-specific conflicts vary across underlying studies" } }, { "claim_id": "C19-POL-003", "revision": 3, "last_reviewed": "2026-07-31", "topic": "Lockdowns and collateral costs", "category": "Policy", "verdict": "Mostly true", "confidence": "Moderate", "evidence_certainty": "Low", "claim": "Packages of early restrictions reduced transmission while imposing substantial educational, economic, medical, and mental-health costs.", "sources": [9, 10, 11], "ledger": { "design": "Cross-country observational modeling, systematic review, and education-impact assessment", "population": "Countries, communities, schools, workers, and health systems during early pandemic phases", "outcome": "Transmission alongside educational, economic, medical, and mental-health effects", "direction": "Supports combined transmission reduction and substantial, uneven collateral costs", "limitations": "Policies overlapped with voluntary behavior and epidemic conditions, limiting causal isolation", "funding_conflicts": "Academic and public-institution sources; designs are non-randomized" } }, { "claim_id": "C19-VAX-001", "revision": 3, "last_reviewed": "2026-07-31", "topic": "mRNA vaccine benefits and rare harms", "category": "Vaccines", "verdict": "True", "confidence": "High", "evidence_certainty": "High", "claim": "mRNA vaccines reduced severe COVID-19 but can cause rare myocarditis, pericarditis, and anaphylaxis.", "sources": [12, 13, 50, 51, 52], "ledger": { "design": "Effectiveness surveillance, regulatory pharmacovigilance, and population-based safety cohorts", "population": "Adults, older or high-risk people, immunocompromised people, adolescents, and young adults", "outcome": "Hospitalization, critical illness, myocarditis, pericarditis, and anaphylaxis", "direction": "Supports protection against severe outcomes with rare risks concentrated in specific strata", "limitations": "Variants, prior immunity, product, dose, interval, age, sex, and time since vaccination change estimates", "funding_conflicts": "Public-health and population studies; some regulatory evidence includes manufacturer submissions" } }, { "claim_id": "C19-DIS-001", "revision": 3, "last_reviewed": "2026-07-31", "topic": "COVID-19 fatality", "category": "Disease", "verdict": "True", "confidence": "High", "evidence_certainty": "High", "claim": "COVID-19 fatality was far below Ebola disease, but widespread transmission still produced millions of deaths.", "sources": [23, 53, 54], "ledger": { "design": "Global excess-mortality estimation, age-specific IFR modeling, and official Ebola surveillance summary", "population": "Forty-five-country COVID analysis, global mortality estimates, and historical Ebola outbreaks", "outcome": "Infection-fatality, case-fatality, and excess deaths", "direction": "Supports much lower COVID fatality than Ebola, despite a far larger worldwide death burden", "limitations": "CFR and IFR use different denominators; risk changed sharply over time and by population", "funding_conflicts": "WHO and academic research; model assumptions and death reporting affect estimates" } }, { "claim_id": "C19-TX-001", "revision": 3, "last_reviewed": "2026-07-31", "topic": "Ivermectin", "category": "Treatments", "verdict": "Mostly true", "confidence": "High", "evidence_certainty": "High", "claim": "Large, well-controlled trials did not establish clinically meaningful COVID-19 benefits for the ivermectin regimens tested.", "sources": [14, 15], "ledger": { "design": "Large randomized platform trials", "population": "Outpatients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19, including higher-risk adults", "outcome": "Hospital admission, prolonged emergency observation, recovery time, and major care events", "direction": "Does not establish clinically meaningful benefit for the regimens tested", "limitations": "Findings apply to tested doses, schedules, variants, populations, and treatment timing", "funding_conflicts": "Trial disclosures should be read individually; major studies used independent randomized designs" } }, { "claim_id": "C19-TX-002", "revision": 3, "last_reviewed": "2026-07-31", "topic": "Hydroxychloroquine", "category": "Treatments", "verdict": "True", "confidence": "High", "evidence_certainty": "High", "claim": "The 2005 cell-culture paper did not establish hydroxychloroquine as a COVID-19 prevention or treatment in people.", "sources": [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7], "ledger": { "design": "Cell-culture experiment followed by treatment and prevention randomized trials", "population": "Vero E6 cells, hospitalized patients, and people with post-exposure risk", "outcome": "Viral activity in vitro, mortality, clinical progression, and infection prevention", "direction": "Laboratory activity did not translate into demonstrated COVID-19 clinical benefit", "limitations": "The 2005 study involved SARS-CoV-1 and chloroquine—not SARS-CoV-2 clinical treatment", "funding_conflicts": "Journal, government, and trial sources; consult individual disclosures for study-specific interests" } }, { "claim_id": "C19-TX-003", "revision": 3, "last_reviewed": "2026-07-31", "topic": "Remdesivir", "category": "Treatments", "verdict": "Mostly true", "confidence": "High", "evidence_certainty": "High", "claim": "Remdesivir benefits varied by setting and timing, and randomized trials did not show excess overall mortality attributable to treatment.", "sources": [4, 16, 17, 18, 55], "ledger": { "design": "Inpatient and outpatient randomized trials plus individual-patient meta-analysis", "population": "Hospitalized patients and selected high-risk outpatients treated early", "outcome": "Recovery, hospitalization, mortality, and adverse events", "direction": "Supports setting-specific benefit without evidence of excess overall mortality from treatment", "limitations": "Benefit varies by disease stage, timing, baseline risk, and contemporaneous standard care", "funding_conflicts": "Includes publicly coordinated and manufacturer-funded trials; disclosures differ by study" } }, { "claim_id": "C19-MED-001", "revision": 3, "last_reviewed": "2026-08-01", "topic": "July 2026 composite treatment and policy post", "category": "Media claims", "verdict": "Mostly false", "confidence": "High", "evidence_certainty": "Moderate", "claim": "A July 31, 2026 post claimed that ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine worked but were deliberately suppressed, masks were theater, lockdowns caused far more harm than good, and began an incomplete remdesivir assertion.", "sources": [3, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16, 17, 49, 55, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65], "subclaims": [ {"subclaim_id":"C19-MED-001-A","claim":"Ivermectin worked as an early COVID-19 treatment.","verdict":"Mostly false","note":"A favorable early meta-analysis exists, but later higher-quality reviews and larger randomized outpatient trials did not establish meaningful benefit for the regimens tested.","sources":[14,15,58,59]}, {"subclaim_id":"C19-MED-001-B","claim":"Hydroxychloroquine worked as an early COVID-19 treatment.","verdict":"Mostly false","note":"Favorable early reviews relied more heavily on observational, preprint, or higher-risk evidence; later outpatient randomized-trial synthesis did not establish hospitalization, mortality, symptom, or viral-clearance benefit.","sources":[3,5,60,61]}, {"subclaim_id":"C19-MED-001-C","claim":"Effective treatments were deliberately suppressed.","verdict":"Unresolved","note":"Restrictions and discouraging guidance are documented, but deliberate suppression of treatments known to be effective is an intent claim not established by the cited record.","sources":[7,57]}, {"subclaim_id":"C19-MED-001-D","claim":"Masks were theater, not science.","verdict":"False","note":"DANMASK was statistically inconclusive for wearer protection in its setting, while the Bangladesh intervention found a modest community effect and filtration evidence varies strongly by product and fit.","sources":[8,49,62,63]}, {"subclaim_id":"C19-MED-001-E","claim":"Lockdowns caused far more harm than good.","verdict":"Unresolved","note":"Serious harms are documented, but intervention definitions, timing, voluntary behavior, outcomes, and counterfactuals differ too much for one universal net-harm verdict.","sources":[9,10,11,64,65]}, {"subclaim_id":"C19-MED-001-F","claim":"Remdesivir was, and remains, …","verdict":"Incomplete","note":"The captured post ends mid-sentence, so no factual proposition is inferred or rated beyond documenting the fragment.","sources":[16,17,55,57]} ], "evidence_balance": [ {"label":"Supports or raises doubt","assessment":"Favorable ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine reviews, the inconclusive DANMASK wearer trial, and skeptical analyses of highly restrictive policies support parts of the post or narrow the certainty of contrary claims.","sources":[58,60,62,64,65]}, {"label":"Contradicts or limits","assessment":"Larger randomized treatment trials, later systematic reviews, the Bangladesh mask intervention, filtration evidence, and multi-country NPI analyses contradict the post’s categorical treatment and mask wording and limit its universal policy conclusion.","sources":[3,5,9,10,14,15,49,59,61,63]}, {"label":"Integrity and interpretation","assessment":"The favorable ivermectin review later received an expression of concern; supportive reviews include smaller or higher-risk studies; mask trials test different estimands; policy studies are non-randomized; and the remdesivir sentence is incomplete.","sources":[57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,65]} ], "ledger": { "design": "Composite claim decomposition mapped to supportive and contrary systematic reviews, randomized trials, mask trials, NPI studies, and the primary post", "population": "COVID-19 outpatients and inpatients, community mask users, and populations affected by pandemic restrictions", "outcome": "Treatment benefit, mask protection, transmission effects, collateral harms, and claim provenance", "direction": "Contradicts the treatment and mask generalizations; supports real restriction harms but not a universal net-harm conclusion", "limitations": "The post bundles heterogeneous claims; supportive reviews include smaller or higher-risk studies; policy effects are context-dependent; the intent allegation lacks direct evidence; and the remdesivir sentence is incomplete", "funding_conflicts": "The matched evidence set spans academic, nonprofit, public, and manufacturer-supported work; study-level funding and conflicts must be read individually" } }, { "claim_id": "C19-MED-002", "revision": 1, "last_reviewed": "2026-08-04", "topic": "August 2026 video and image claim set", "category": "Media claims", "verdict": "Misleading", "confidence": "Moderate to high", "evidence_certainty": "Moderate", "claim": "Eight shared videos and one image argue that vaccine policies were coercive, pediatric vaccine evidence did not exist, officials lied or destroyed records, a laboratory origin is proved, and Fauci personally directed Wuhan funding.", "sources": [19,20,21,24,33,34,66,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80], "subclaims": [ {"subclaim_id":"C19-MED-002-A","claim_status":"Documented policy + interpretation","claim":"Vaccine-passport rules used access to social and recreational settings to increase vaccination.","verdict":"Mostly true","note":"The provincial policy required proof of vaccination for specified non-essential settings; whether that constitutes being forced is a normative characterization.","sources":[66,75]}, {"subclaim_id":"C19-MED-002-B","claim_status":"Unproven intent allegation","claim":"Anthony Fauci was lying about everything, including masks, distance, immunity, vaccine transmission, and origin.","verdict":"False","note":"Guidance and confidence changed, but the absolute allegation collapses distinct questions and supplies no evidence of knowing deception for each one.","sources":[22,33,49,62,63,67]}, {"subclaim_id":"C19-MED-002-C","claim_status":"Empirical claim","claim":"No study showed that COVID-19 vaccination protected children.","verdict":"False","note":"Randomized adolescent evidence and later real-world studies found protection against symptomatic disease, hospitalization, and critical illness; absolute benefit and risk were not uniform.","sources":[68,76,77,78]}, {"subclaim_id":"C19-MED-002-D","claim_status":"Documented conduct + unadjudicated legal allegation","claim":"Records show email deletion concerns involving Fauci and his office; therefore a crime and false testimony are proved.","verdict":"Misleading","note":"Deletion concerns and apparently contradictory records are documented, but the clips do not by themselves establish every element of a records offense, criminal intent, or perjury.","sources":[69,79,80]}, {"subclaim_id":"C19-MED-002-E","claim_status":"Attributed personal assessment","claim":"Ashish Jha now assesses a laboratory leak as more likely.","verdict":"True","note":"The clip records Jha describing that as his best assessment while emphasizing that he does not know for sure; it does not resolve origin.","sources":[19,20,21,70]}, {"subclaim_id":"C19-MED-002-F","claim_status":"Historical empirical claim","claim":"CNN's March 2021 100% effective report proved that officials falsely claimed complete infection and transmission prevention.","verdict":"Misleading","note":"The trial observed 100% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 with a wide confidence interval; the result was not a population-transmission finding.","sources":[71,76]}, {"subclaim_id":"C19-MED-002-G","claim_status":"Disputed censorship allegation","claim":"Officials censored the laboratory-origin view while intelligence agencies had already concluded a leak was likely.","verdict":"Unresolved","note":"Some agencies favored a laboratory incident and later releases allege suppression, but the excerpt does not identify each statement, action, actor, date, or evidentiary standard.","sources":[20,21,33,34,72]}, {"subclaim_id":"C19-MED-002-H","claim_status":"Unadjudicated criminal allegation","claim":"A Fauci montage proves crimes against humanity, genocide, biological war crimes, and responsibility for all pandemics since 1984.","verdict":"False","note":"Selected real clips and changing statements do not establish the post's sweeping criminal and historical allegations.","sources":[73,79]}, {"subclaim_id":"C19-MED-002-I","claim_status":"Documented funding + personal-direction allegation","claim":"Fauci personally directed roughly $600,000 to the Wuhan Institute of Virology for bat-coronavirus work.","verdict":"Mostly true","note":"The funding chain and oversight failures are documented, but the image does not establish Fauci's personal selection or direct routing of a particular subaward.","sources":[24,74]} ], "evidence_balance": [ {"label":"Documented core","assessment":"The set preserves actual vaccine-passport restrictions, pediatric efficacy evidence, official-origin disagreements, funding through EcoHealth to WIV, and serious records concerns.","sources":[24,66,69,70,71,75,76,79,80]}, {"label":"Overreach","assessment":"Several captions move from a real record to universal claims about coercion, nonexistent evidence, knowing deception, guilt, proven origin, or personal control of a subaward.","sources":[67,68,72,73,74]}, {"label":"Unresolved","assessment":"Origin, intent, records-law liability, the scope of platform pressure, and individual benefit-risk judgments require evidence beyond these excerpts.","sources":[19,20,21,33,34,78,79,80]} ], "ledger": { "design": "Primary-media capture and transcript review mapped to official policy, pediatric studies, audit records, congressional testimony, and origins assessments", "population": "Canadian residents, children and adolescents, federal officials, grant recipients, and early-pandemic origin records", "outcome": "Policy access conditions, pediatric outcomes, record-retention evidence, origin assessments, funding flow, and claim provenance", "direction": "Confirms several underlying events while rejecting or withholding broader causal, criminal, and universal conclusions", "limitations": "Edited excerpts, one uncaptained montage, disputed intent and legal liability, subgroup-varying benefit-risk, and unresolved origins", "funding_conflicts": "Manufacturer-sponsored trials, CDC-supported effectiveness work, audits, testimony, political committee releases, and user-supplied media" } }, { "claim_id": "C19-ORG-001", "revision": 3, "last_reviewed": "2026-07-31", "topic": "SARS-CoV-2 origins", "category": "Origins", "verdict": "Unresolved", "confidence": "Moderate", "evidence_certainty": "Low", "claim": "Whether SARS-CoV-2 arose through zoonotic spillover or a research-related incident.", "sources": [19, 20, 21, 26, 27, 28, 30, 31, 32, 33, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48], "ledger": { "design": "Genomic, phylogenetic, spatial, environmental, documentary, forensic, and intelligence evidence", "population": "Early Wuhan cases and samples, wildlife-market material, viral genomes, laboratories, and official records", "outcome": "Relative support for zoonotic spillover, research-related incident, or specific engineering hypotheses", "direction": "Mixed: empirical studies support zoonosis while documentary and intelligence evidence raises research-related plausibility", "limitations": "No infected source animal and immediate precursor; no disclosed laboratory precursor and transmission chain", "funding_conflicts": "Highly varied; papers, agencies, governments, and commentators have distinct institutional interests" } }, { "claim_id": "C19-FND-001", "revision": 3, "last_reviewed": "2026-07-31", "topic": "Funding, causation, and personal-profit claims", "category": "Funding", "verdict": "Mostly true", "confidence": "Moderate", "evidence_certainty": "Moderate", "claim": "U.S. funding and oversight failures are documented; pandemic causation and illicit personal profit are not established by the public record reviewed.", "sources": [20, 21, 24, 33, 34, 56], "ledger": { "design": "Inspector-general audit, grant and documentary records, intelligence releases, and disclosure procedures", "population": "NIH, NIAID, EcoHealth Alliance, Wuhan Institute of Virology, and covered federal officials", "outcome": "Funding flow, oversight performance, pandemic causation, and documented personal financial interest", "direction": "Supports funding and oversight failures; does not establish pandemic causation or illicit personal profit", "limitations": "Public records remain incomplete; a disclosure-request process is not itself proof of holdings or profit", "funding_conflicts": "Government oversight and institutional records; political assertions are separated from audited findings" } } ], "origins_matrix": [ {"record_id":"ORG-MAT-001","item":"Earliest known case geography","evidence_class":"Empirical epidemiology","direction":"Supports zoonosis","establishes":"Many early recognized cases were geographically associated with the Huanan market.","does_not_establish":"That the market was necessarily the first spillover site or ascertainment was unbiased.","sources":[26,39,46]}, {"record_id":"ORG-MAT-002","item":"Market wildlife and environmental samples","evidence_class":"Environmental genomics","direction":"Supports zoonosis","establishes":"Susceptible-animal DNA and SARS-CoV-2-positive environmental material co-occurred near wildlife stalls.","does_not_establish":"That a sampled animal was infected or which species transmitted the virus.","sources":[28]}, {"record_id":"ORG-MAT-003","item":"Early viral lineages and phylogeny","evidence_class":"Phylogenetic analysis","direction":"Contested zoonotic support","establishes":"Models supported multiple introductions while later work challenges rooting and specific intermediates.","does_not_establish":"A definitive order of early lineages or a proven number of spillovers.","sources":[27,40,41,47]}, {"record_id":"ORG-MAT-004","item":"Related bat sarbecoviruses","evidence_class":"Field virology","direction":"Supports natural plausibility","establishes":"Related viruses capable of using human ACE2 circulate in bats in Southeast Asia.","does_not_establish":"An immediate animal precursor or a transmission chain into Wuhan.","sources":[35,36]}, {"record_id":"ORG-MAT-005","item":"Wuhan coronavirus research and oversight","evidence_class":"Documentary and audit evidence","direction":"Supports research-related plausibility","establishes":"Relevant coronavirus work, U.S. subaward funding, and serious monitoring failures existed.","does_not_establish":"That funded research produced SARS-CoV-2 or caused the pandemic.","sources":[21,24,34]}, {"record_id":"ORG-MAT-006","item":"DEFUSE proposal and cleavage-site work","evidence_class":"Documentary evidence","direction":"Circumstantial research-related support","establishes":"A rejected proposal contemplated adding cleavage sites to SARS-like coronaviruses.","does_not_establish":"That the proposed work was funded, performed, or produced SARS-CoV-2.","sources":[34,42,43]}, {"record_id":"ORG-MAT-007","item":"Genome and engineering hypotheses","evidence_class":"Genomic and experimental analysis","direction":"Against specific engineering claims","establishes":"Several proposed sequence fingerprints or MERS-derived mechanisms are not diagnostic or experimentally supported.","does_not_establish":"Natural spillover or exclusion of every laboratory-associated scenario.","sources":[25,29,36,43,48]}, {"record_id":"ORG-MAT-008","item":"Intelligence assessments","evidence_class":"Intelligence judgment","direction":"Mixed; several favor laboratory incident","establishes":"Multiple agencies or reported services assess a laboratory incident as more likely, often with low or moderate confidence.","does_not_establish":"A publicly reproducible empirical chain; much underlying information remains classified.","sources":[20,21,30,31,44]}, {"record_id":"ORG-MAT-009","item":"WHO SAGO assessment","evidence_class":"Expert-panel assessment","direction":"Zoonosis best supported; unresolved","establishes":"Available scientific evidence favors zoonosis in the panel's assessment.","does_not_establish":"A conclusive origin because essential records remain unavailable.","sources":[19,32]} ], "quantitative_effects": [ {"claim_id":"C19-VAX-001","metric":"2024-2025 ED or urgent-care effectiveness","treated_or_index":"33%","comparison":"No updated dose","effect_and_uncertainty":"95% CI 28%-38%","population_timing":"Adults 18+; days 7-119 after vaccination","source_id":12}, {"claim_id":"C19-VAX-001","metric":"2024-2025 hospitalization effectiveness","treated_or_index":"45%-46%","comparison":"No updated dose","effect_and_uncertainty":"Two CDC network estimates","population_timing":"Immunocompetent adults 65+; days 7-119","source_id":12}, {"claim_id":"C19-VAX-001","metric":"Myocarditis or pericarditis incidence","treated_or_index":"8 per million doses","comparison":"27 per million doses","effect_and_uncertainty":"Unadjusted estimates; subgroup-specific","population_timing":"All persons 6 months-64 years versus males 12-24; 2023-2024 formula","source_id":13}, {"claim_id":"C19-DIS-001","metric":"Pandemic-associated excess mortality","treated_or_index":"14.9 million","comparison":"Expected mortality baseline","effect_and_uncertainty":"Range 13.3-16.6 million","population_timing":"Global; 2020-2021; direct and indirect effects","source_id":23}, {"claim_id":"C19-DIS-001","metric":"Average Ebola case-fatality rate","treated_or_index":"Approximately 50%","comparison":"Historical range 25%-90%","effect_and_uncertainty":"Not an IFR comparison","population_timing":"Past Ebola disease outbreaks","source_id":53}, {"claim_id":"C19-TX-001","metric":"TOGETHER primary-outcome event","treated_or_index":"14.7%","comparison":"16.3%","effect_and_uncertainty":"RR 0.90; 95% Bayesian credible interval 0.70-1.16","population_timing":"Ivermectin versus placebo; outpatient trial","source_id":14}, {"claim_id":"C19-TX-002","metric":"RECOVERY 28-day mortality","treated_or_index":"27.0%","comparison":"25.0%","effect_and_uncertainty":"Rate ratio 1.09; 95% CI 0.97-1.23","population_timing":"Hydroxychloroquine versus usual care; hospitalized patients","source_id":3}, {"claim_id":"C19-TX-003","metric":"ACTT-1 median recovery","treated_or_index":"10 days","comparison":"15 days","effect_and_uncertainty":"Recovery rate ratio 1.29; 95% CI 1.12-1.49","population_timing":"Remdesivir versus placebo; hospitalized patients","source_id":16}, {"claim_id":"C19-TX-003","metric":"PINETREE hospitalization or death","treated_or_index":"0.7%","comparison":"5.3%","effect_and_uncertainty":"HR 0.13; 95% CI 0.03-0.59","population_timing":"Remdesivir versus placebo; selected high-risk outpatients treated early","source_id":55} ], "sources": [ {"id":1,"type":"Laboratory study","title":"Vincent et al. Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread. Virology Journal (2005).","url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1232869/"}, {"id":2,"type":"Government archive","title":"CDC Stacks record for the 2005 chloroquine paper.","url":"https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/3620"}, {"id":3,"type":"Randomized trial","title":"RECOVERY Collaborative Group. Effect of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19.","url":"https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2022926"}, {"id":4,"type":"Platform randomized trial","title":"WHO Solidarity Trial Consortium. Repurposed antiviral drugs trial.","url":"https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2023184"}, {"id":5,"type":"Randomized trial","title":"Boulware et al. Hydroxychloroquine as post-exposure prophylaxis.","url":"https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638"}, {"id":6,"type":"Official guidance","title":"World Health Organization: COVID-19 and hydroxychloroquine.","url":"https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-hydroxychloroquine"}, {"id":7,"type":"Regulatory safety notice","title":"FDA hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine safety communication.","url":"https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-communications/fda-cautions-against-use-hydroxychloroquine-or-chloroquine-covid-19-outside-hospital-setting-or"}, {"id":8,"type":"Review clarification","title":"Cochrane statement on its respiratory-virus physical-interventions review.","url":"https://www.cochrane.org/about-us/news/statement-physical-interventions-interrupt-or-reduce-spread-respiratory-viruses-review"}, {"id":9,"type":"Observational modeling","title":"Haug et al. Ranking worldwide COVID-19 government interventions.","url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0"}, {"id":10,"type":"Systematic review","title":"Mendez-Brito et al. Systematic review of non-pharmaceutical interventions.","url":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0163445321003169"}, {"id":11,"type":"Official impact assessment","title":"UNESCO: Education disruption and recovery.","url":"https://www.unesco.org/en/covid-19/education-disruption-recovery"}, {"id":12,"type":"Effectiveness surveillance","title":"CDC interim estimates of 2024–2025 COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness.","url":"https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/74/wr/mm7406a1.htm"}, {"id":13,"type":"Regulatory safety notice","title":"FDA updated mRNA vaccine labeling on myocarditis and pericarditis.","url":"https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/safety-availability-biologics/fda-approves-required-updated-warning-labeling-mrna-covid-19-vaccines-regarding-myocarditis-and"}, {"id":14,"type":"Platform randomized trial","title":"Reis et al. 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